Sunday, January 21, 2007

Troubling Market Rhythms

Sorry for the lack of an Update, but this has been the weekend that wasn't. Multiple projects with colliding deadlines have me preoccupied.

Regarding the markets, the indexes stayed above important support this past week, but two new patterns appeared: leading stocks took a pounding, and investors started selling earnings news. Until the indexes break below support, they deserve the benefit of the doubt. However, weakness in leading stocks and sell-the-news are changes in rhythm for this market. The meaning is unclear, but this new syncopation deserves at least as much respect as price support.

TOF, your comments on the SMA TOF Ratio are duly noted. I found myself using the SMA version because it's more sensitive and lags less than the EMA version, but it's largely just personal preference. Nonetheless, the SMA Ratio triggered a Buy right at the Day 21 follow-through in mid-August, and started forecasting the current stall weeks ago. Since you're recommending being in cash while the SMA version is too, that's good enough for me - LOL.

Looking ahead, neither the Bulls nor the Bears have stepped up to decisively take care of business. Based on the weekly charts, the Bears have their work cut out for them, however, the winds of change may be in the air.

This should be an interesting week, and I'll do my best to check in when I can.



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