Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The Other 66%

Even though last week Alan Greenspan reiterated his "33% chance" of a US recession, the market itself continues to weigh in that the chances are far less.

Since recession talk began ramping up in summer 2006, the market has consistently been sending a very different message. For example, since the July low, the NASDAQ is now up an impressive 27%. Below are two charts that reinforce the message of the markets, and place recession odds far lower than even 33%.

It's only an intraday print, but the peskier 3-month/10-year Yield Curve as now back at even, and Cyclicals don't rally in the face of bona fide recession risk.



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